Saturday, February 9, 2008

WHO MATCHES UP BEST AGAINST McCAIN?



Came across this news story on YouTube. It highlights recent polls asking which Democratic candidate voters believe will match up best against McCain. It also looks at the voting data (not poll data) to ascertain which candidate is winning the Women vote and the White vote.

Yes... sad that these are still such important distinctions in the the 21st century. But, alas, they are. And being looked at.

Here in California many use a phrase "The Bradley Effect" and most will know what that means. Major Tom Bradley of Los Angeles, an African-American, was quite popular in the city and groundbreaking in that he became the major of the second largest city in the United States. He was only the second black major in the country and was elected a total of five times to the seat, from 1973 to 1993.

He ran for the governor's seat twice and polled incredibly well. But, lo and behold, when the votes were tallied Major Bradley lost both elections. They were narrow losses but the fact that the actual choices of the voters seemed to run counter to what the were saying in public was labeled "The Bradley Effect."

An interesting note with Obama is that we have actual polling data (real votes cast) and he is doing quite well amongst White voters. Not so well amongst Hispanic voters unfortunately. But doing quite well overall.

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